3 posts
Five years into the U.S.-China tech decoupling, the world is not dividing into two clean blocs. It is fragmenting into a messy mosaic of economic relationships, strategic alignments, and technology dependencies that defy simple categorization.
The Strait of Hormuz handles nearly a quarter of global oil trade. When Iranian actions disrupted shipping in early 2026, the world remembered what it means to concentrate the world's energy supply through a single eight-kilometer-wide chokepoint.
U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductors have entered their fifth year. The strategic logic is clear; the strategic outcomes are increasingly ambiguous. China is not standing still, and the collateral damage to allied economies is becoming harder to ignore.
